Minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting from November 1-2 have just been released with members urging “additional accommodation.” This makes it more likely that a third round of quantitative easing, the subject of previous articles on http://www.emergingmoney.com , is coming.The minutes from the meeting noted that “participants had revised downward their projections for growth since their previous forecasts in June.” At this rate, economic growth is not expected to pick up fast — unemployment may take three or four years to return to more normal levels.
The key passage is here:
“A few members indicated that they believed the economic outlook might warrant additional policy accommodation. However, it was noted that any such accommodation would likely be more effective if it were provided in the context of a future communications initiative, and most of these members agreed that they could support retention of the current policy stance at this meeting. One member dissented from the policy decision on the grounds that additional monetary policy accommodation was warranted at this time.”
To cut through the jargon, this means that multiple members of the FOMC panel are now urging another round of stimulus — “additional policy accommodation” — and the reason they did not get it at the last meeting boils down to timing.
Ben Bernanke wants to move gradually and lay the groundwork before launching anything as ambitious as a multi-hundred-billion-dollar bond-buying campaign like either of the previous rounds of quantitative easing.
They have yet to create much of a “future communications initiative” around such a move, so the dissenters may be content to bide their time through the next FOMC meeting on December 13 as well.
But now QE3 is formally on the table, so traders looking toward 2012 and beyond may want to plan accordingly.
We have been monitoring the possible trades that could emerge out of a third round of quantitative easing around here at http://www.emergingmoney.com . A nice place to start: ” Ben Bernanke to emerging market investors: buy commodities! ”
- Fed Minutes: Bernanke Firmly In Control Of FOMC, QE3 Coming (forbes.com)
- Lower GDP Raises The Stakes For Bernanke: QE3 By Mid-2012 (forbes.com)